Trump to dump TPP

Malcolm Latarche
Malcolm Latarche

22 November 2016


Its official – or as official as it can get before the US president elect takes office – that the long-awaited trade deal known as the Trans Pacific Partnership will not be ratified by the US. On Monday, Trump announced that scrapping the deal would be the first thing he does upon taking office. This should not be taken as the first shots in a trade war with China, which might happen if Trump pursues policies that would see manufacturing jobs repatriated to the US, because China is not one of the twelve countries that finalised the deal earlier this year. In fact the agreement would have covered Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, and Singapore as the originators of the idea and Australia, Canada, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, US and Vietnam all of which joined in in 2008. Dumping TPP is also likely to herald an end to the similar Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) trade deal currently being negotiated with the EU and an unravelling of the NAFTA agreement with Canada and Mexico among others. Because neither TTP nor TTIP are yet in operation, the decision by the US to pull out will not have any obvious effect upon current trade levels. Trump has yet to make any meaningful decisions that actually affects trade between the US and China beyond what he has said during the election campaign but even that should be sufficient for ship operators, finance houses and manufacturing corporations getting ready to change strategies to meet a new global order.